A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
